Can Quantum Computing Break Bitcoin? Project Eleven Puts It to the Test

Venture Eleven, a quantum computing analysis group, has introduced the Q-Day Prize – a world problem providing 1 Bitcoin to the primary crew or particular person who can use Shor’s algorithm on a quantum pc to interrupt a part of an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key.

The competitors started on April 16, 2025, and can run till April 5, 2026. The principle goal is to evaluate the real-world danger that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin’s cryptographic safety. The problem particularly targets the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA).

World Quantum Problem

Based on Venture Eleven’s tweet, greater than 10 million Bitcoin addresses have uncovered public keys, doubtlessly placing an estimated 6.2 million BTC, price roughly $500 billion, in danger if quantum computing capabilities proceed to advance. The Q-Day Prize goals to maneuver the dialogue round quantum threats past theoretical hypothesis by encouraging a sensible demonstration of vulnerability.

Individuals should run Shor’s algorithm solely on a quantum pc, with out help from classical computing strategies. Even breaking a number of bits of a Bitcoin key would qualify as a sound proof-of-concept and will point out that full key restoration is believable with future technological enhancements. Venture Eleven acknowledged that no real-world ECC key has ever been cracked up to now.

The initiative comes amid notable progress within the quantum computing sector. Google’s ‘Willow’ chip, for instance, lately performed a computation in 5 minutes that may take conventional supercomputers an estimated 10 septillion years.

Different companies, together with IBM, Amazon, and Microsoft, have additionally made developments in quantum {hardware}, and entry to quantum processors is more and more out there by way of cloud companies. PsiQuantum, one other main participant within the discipline, raised $750 million in early 2025, citing developments in photonic chip design and enhancements to quantum algorithms comparable to Shor’s.

Whereas trade consultants don’t take into account the quantum risk to Bitcoin to be imminent, Venture Eleven’s initiative seeks to quantify that danger by means of open experimentation.

The Nice Quantum Debate

The quantum computing debate isn’t new. Earlier this 12 months, CryptoQuant identified it as an rising danger, particularly in areas like mining and personal key safety. The talk reignited after a November NIST report warned that sure algorithms susceptible to quantum assaults will probably be phased out inside 5 years.

Whereas some voices, comparable to ‘Bitcoin Isaiah’ on X, advocate for pressing preparation, others like Blockstream CEO Adam Again keep that Bitcoin’s encryption ought to maintain agency till round 2035.