In response to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% probability of topping $140,000 earlier than the month ends. He posted that chance on X and backed it with simulation work that makes use of a decade of worth strikes to map seemingly outcomes.
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Simulation Primarily based On Historic Information
Peterson stated the mannequin runs lots of of simulations utilizing each day Bitcoin costs going again to 2015. Primarily based on these runs, he put the prospect Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.
He additionally gave a 43% likelihood that the worth will finish the month under $136k. On the time he spoke, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $121,200. Which means an increase of about 11% could be wanted to achieve $140,000 from the present degree.
Half of Bitcoin’s October good points could have already occurred, based on this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes under $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
Bitcoin set a contemporary all-time excessive of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin started October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced good points.
In response to knowledge, October has been the second-best month on common since 2013, with typical good points of 20%. Experiences have disclosed that November is the strongest month traditionally, averaging 46% good points since 2013.
No Human Emotion
Peterson described his forecast as pushed by knowledge somewhat than human emotion. He stated every projection follows worth adjustments that mirror Bitcoin’s previous volatility and rhythm.
That strategy goals to take away bias from short-term sentiment. Nonetheless, there are limits to what historic simulations can present.
Bitcoin has generally moved in ways in which didn’t match previous patterns. Market reactions, coverage strikes, and different forces can push costs off the script that historical past suggests.
Market Sentiment Stays Bullish
Different analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the latest excessive. One analyst stated the market was retesting prior highs and will transfer greater.
One other wrote that strain was constructing for additional good points. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by merchants and funds.
Bitcoin is the brand new hurdle fee.
In the event you can’t beat it, you must purchase it.
I defined on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many buyers will not be producing the returns they assume they’re. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua
— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) October 7, 2025
Macro Notes From A Distinguished Investor
Experiences have additionally carried feedback from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can proceed if governments and central banks preserve printing cash.
JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin won’t ever cease going up.
“They are going to by no means cease printing cash.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025
His view hyperlinks financial coverage to Bitcoin demand, and it’s extensively shared amongst supporters who see the asset as a hedge.
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Featured picture from Verdict, chart from TradingView