Look, I believe it is solely a matter of time earlier than China pulls a whole 180 on its Bitcoin ban. Sure, they outlawed buying and selling and mining again in 2021, however truthfully, quite a bit has modified since then — particularly this yr. Bitcoin’s momentum globally has been insane.
We have seen US President-Elect Donald Trump calling to stockpile Bitcoin; Bitcoin ETFs get authorized, Fed Chair Jerome Powell calling Bitcoin “digital gold,” Larry Fink flipping pro-Bitcoin, and even Putin saying good issues about it. With all of this occurring, I would not be shocked if China has already began quietly stacking sats (shopping for bitcoin).
This is why I believe that: China does not prefer to announce what it is doing beforehand — it is simply not how they function. Former Binance CEO CZ talked about this lately on the Bitcoin MENA convention in Abu Dhabi, saying that whereas the US likes to make massive public statements about upcoming insurance policies (like Trump asserting Bitcoin plans to court docket voters), Asian international locations favor to maneuver in silence.
And let’s not neglect China does not have elections. They needn’t win over public opinion like Trump does. In the event that they’re making strikes with Bitcoin, they will do it quietly — and we’ll discover out once they’re able to make it official.
Now, with Trump’s massive push for Bitcoin and crypto, I am unable to see China sitting on the sidelines for too lengthy. That is turning into a worldwide race, and if China needs to remain aggressive, they can not afford to overlook the Bitcoin practice. My intestine tells me they’re already planning to unban Bitcoin and crypto — and I would not be shocked if it occurs as early as Q1 subsequent yr, particularly if Trump takes workplace.
One other massive trace? Hong Kong. China has a protracted historical past of utilizing Hong Kong as a sandbox to check issues earlier than rolling them out on the mainland. And this yr, we have seen Hong Kong make main strikes — approving Bitcoin and crypto ETFs and greenlighting extra crypto exchanges. Let’s be actual: this is not a coincidence. They’re planning to remove crypto taxes for establishments. I believe China is watching fastidiously, and these are early steps towards a broader shift.
For my part, China has probably been quietly accumulating bitcoin all alongside. When the time is true, they will unban it — and never simply to compete with the US, however to guide. Watch this house. I believe it should occur a lot ahead of most individuals count on.
This text is a Take. Opinions expressed are totally the creator’s and don’t essentially mirror these of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Journal.