Cryptocurrency markets surged following the US-Vietnam commerce settlement, with Bitcoin briefly touching $110,000 in keeping with the most recent Bybit and Block Scholes report. The landmark deal triggered vital volatility throughout main digital belongings, notably impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives markets.
Bybit, the world’s second-largest crypto change by quantity, partnered with analytics agency Block Scholes to doc how digital belongings responded to the geopolitical improvement. Their knowledge exhibits Bitcoin’s worth surged to $110,000 inside hours of the commerce deal announcement earlier than settling close to $108,000.
The report highlights how cryptocurrency markets more and more react to conventional monetary occasions, with derivatives merchants positioning for volatility round main geopolitical bulletins. This sample follows earlier market responses to occasions just like the US-Iran battle in June.
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Response
Bitcoin demonstrated outstanding resilience throughout the commerce negotiations, brushing the $110,000 milestone because the deal was finalized. The flagship cryptocurrency’s implied volatility quickly flattened between 43-45% earlier than resuming its upward trajectory in keeping with choices knowledge.
BTC’s worth restoration from its June 22 low of $98,000 represents an 8% rally, although it stays under its all-time excessive. The report notes Bitcoin’s realized volatility surged to 43% throughout the occasion, contrasting with declining implied volatility that dipped towards 35%.
Key BTC metrics noticed throughout the occasion:
- Spot worth peak: $110,000
- Restoration from month-to-month low: +8%
- Realized volatility: 43%
- Implied volatility: 35%
Ethereum (ETH) Volatility Dynamics
Ethereum exhibited much more dramatic worth motion than Bitcoin, with ETH’s volatility premium over BTC reaching a five-year excessive in keeping with the evaluation. The ETH-to-BTC implied volatility ratio for short-dated choices exceeded 2x throughout the market occasion.
ETH’s worth plunged to $2,200 on June 22 earlier than rallying over 12% to present ranges, outperforming Bitcoin’s restoration. This volatility divergence created uncommon choices market circumstances the place shorter-dated ETH choices traded at increased premiums than longer-dated contracts.
The report paperwork how ETH’s volatility time period construction inverted throughout peak uncertainty earlier than flattening as markets stabilized. Choices skew additionally shifted dramatically towards OTM places throughout the sell-off earlier than partially normalizing.
Bybit and Block Scholes Evaluation
The collaboration between Bybit and Block Scholes gives distinctive insights into how crypto derivatives anticipate geopolitical occasions. Their knowledge exhibits choices merchants positioned for volatility forward of the commerce deal announcement, with ETH choices volumes dominated by calls regardless of the bearish skew.
Block Scholes analysts famous: “The time period construction inversion in ETH choices wasn’t the one distinction to BTC markets. Open curiosity and choices volumes for ETH had been triumphant in calls—a stark comparability to the denomination of places in BTC positions.”
This report continues their analysis partnership that beforehand documented volatility anomalies throughout Could’s ETH rally and June’s Center East tensions. The complete evaluation is out there on Block Scholes’ research portal.
Market analysts observe that cryptocurrency volatility more and more correlates with conventional geopolitical occasions, although with amplified magnitude. The US-Vietnam deal represents the most recent instance of digital belongings serving as sentiment indicators for world commerce developments.
Derivatives markets now anticipate additional volatility round upcoming financial occasions, notably with the US election cycle intensifying. The report suggests crypto might face continued turbulence by means of Q3 2025 as regulatory frameworks evolve globally.
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The US-Vietnam commerce settlement demonstrates cryptocurrency’s rising sensitivity to conventional monetary catalysts, with Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives markets serving as main indicators for market sentiment. This occasion reinforces crypto’s maturation as an asset class whereas highlighting the continued dominance of volatility in digital asset pricing.
- Implied Volatility
- A metric forecasting anticipated worth fluctuations based mostly on choices pricing. It displays market expectations for future asset volatility.
- Realized Volatility
- The precise worth motion noticed in an asset over a particular interval. Calculated from historic worth knowledge reasonably than market expectations.
- Time period Construction
- The connection between choices contracts with totally different expiration dates. An inverted construction signifies increased near-term volatility expectations.
- Choices Skew
- The pricing distinction between put and name choices. Detrimental skew signifies increased demand for draw back safety.
- Geopolitical Occasions
- Main worldwide developments like commerce agreements or conflicts that influence world monetary markets. Crypto more and more reacts to those catalysts.
This text is for informational functions solely and doesn’t represent monetary recommendation. Please conduct your individual analysis earlier than making any funding choices.
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Editor-in-Chief / Coin Push Dean is a crypto fanatic based mostly in Amsterdam, the place he follows each twist and switch on the planet of cryptocurrencies and Web3.