Locked Token Holders Face 50% Losses as $40B in Altcoins Set to Unlock: STIX

In accordance with information shared by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal, buyers holding locked tokens have confronted main losses over the previous yr.

Between Could 2024 and April 2025, the typical drop in worth from over-the-counter (OTC) valuations to present spot costs recorded was round 50%.

Locked Tokens Underperform Amid Market Decline

Sabharwal’s analysis highlighted that many buyers missed alternatives to exit at double at present’s costs in 2024, as market situations led to widespread devaluations throughout main tokens. Unreleased token offers are sometimes made early with long-term expectations, however over the previous yr, market modifications and project-specific points have led to heavy losses.

Nearly all of the tracked initiatives have seen giant drops in worth. Scroll (SCR) and Blast (BLAST) have been hit the worst, falling by 85% and 88% respectively. Eigenlayer (EIGEN) adopted with a 75% drop. Different initiatives like ZKsync (ZK) at -64%, Wormhole (W) at -50%, and io.web (IO) at -48% additionally noticed sharp declines. Jito was the one venture to publish positive factors, rising 75% over the identical interval.

General, these early-stage token buyers who dedicated to locked positions confronted larger losses than the overall crypto market. Knowledge from Artemis reveals the broader market declined by a median of 40.7% throughout the identical timeframe, about 20% lower than the typical loss for locked tokens.

Traders Are Going through Extra Losses

Additional, when factoring in liquidity worth over the previous 12 months, such holders misplaced one other 31% in alternative price when in comparison with Bitcoin (BTC), which gained 45% throughout the identical interval. On high of that, with over $40 billion in locked altcoins set to be launched quickly, sellers at the moment are dealing with one other 50% low cost when exiting by way of OTC markets.

Primarily based on this information, $1 invested a yr in the past would now be price $1.45 in BTC. Then again, that very same $1 held in an unreleased coin is now price $0.50. Additional, with the present OTC low cost, it will promote for under $0.25. This leads to a complete worth lack of roughly 82.8% in comparison with BTC, and 75% in comparison with the USD.

The analyst additionally noted that since most cryptocurrencies are reaching the top of their cliff intervals in 2025, reductions are barely decrease now resulting from shorter vesting durations.

Locked tokens normally include vesting schedules or restrictions that delay when they are often bought. This leaves holders uncovered to cost modifications throughout the lock-up interval, as they can’t instantly liquidate their holdings.