Interconnections between centralized and decentralized crypto lending are heightening systemic danger, Galaxy Digital’s analysis arm stated in a June 4 report on first-quarter borrowing data.
The report estimated that as of March 31, over $39 billion in crypto-collateralized debt was excellent throughout decentralized lending apps, centralized lenders, and crypto-backed stablecoin issuers.
DeFi protocols accounted for 45.3% of the whole, centralized venues accounted for 34.6%, and collateralized stablecoins accounted for 20.1%.
In accordance with the report, many centralized desks elevate short-term liquidity on DeFi rails, then lend the funds off-chain.
This duplication causes the identical debt obligation to seem in each on-chain knowledge and personal ledgers, artificially inflating headline borrowing figures and complicating real-time danger assessments throughout market stress.
Cross-venue liquidations
Sharp worth declines typically set off automated liquidations on DeFi platforms first, as good contracts implement margin guidelines immediately.
Centralized desks that borrowed from DeFi might then reply by recalling loans or liquidating shopper collateral on exchanges, additional pressuring costs.
These compelled gross sales feed again into the market, deepen volatility, and set off further on-chain liquidations, particularly for property like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Staked ETH (stETH) which might be extensively used throughout venues.
Pendle tokens exhibited this reflexivity through the second quarter. After Aave enabled excessive loan-to-value collateral, customers deposited almost $1.4 billion and borrowed stablecoins, driving whole DeFi provide above $54 billion by Could 26.
If costs fall, mass liquidations may cascade again to centralized desks with mirrored exposures.
Debt-funded treasuries
In the meantime, company treasuries have added one other credit score layer to the system.
The report recognized a minimum of $12.7 billion of convertible and zero-coupon notes issued by listed corporations to finance crypto holdings. The listing of corporations consists of Strategy, Riot Platforms, and Twenty One Capital.
Technique alone owes $8.2 billion and pays $17.5 million in quarterly curiosity. Most notes mature between mid-2027 and late-2028, making a refinancing hump that coincides with debt carried by friends pursuing related treasury insurance policies.
To handle short-term obligations, many corporations depend on OTC stablecoin loans, usually priced 2% to 4% above prevailing DeFi charges. The slender unfold signifies that centralized desks are actively benchmarking in opposition to DeFi, linking personal credit score prices to on-chain circumstances.
When DeFi charges shift, OTC borrowing prices rapidly regulate, tightening margin necessities for treasury debtors and different individuals.
Galaxy concluded that whereas the diversification of credit score channels has elevated borrowing capability, it has additionally strengthened the transmission of shocks throughout the system.
Within the absence of standardized disclosures or on-chain attribution for entity-level exposures, each regulators and market individuals stay at nighttime in regards to the full scope of danger embedded in crypto credit score markets.