Dogecoin is returning to a weakened weekly RSI zone that previously appeared near past cycle bottoms, prompting traders to watch whether the market’s largest meme coin is entering another long-term accumulation phase. Although the current signal has not yet confirmed a trend reversal, historical data is drawing analysts’ attention to DOGE’s current price area after months of weakness.
DOGE Enters Weak Momentum Zone
DOGE is currently trading around $0.104 after a sharp decline from its peak near $0.48. On the weekly chart, Dogecoin’s price structure continues to weaken, while the RSI indicator is returning to its lowest level since the 2022 correction phase.
DOGE weekly RSI chart. Source: TradingView
Analyst Cryptollica stated that DOGE has returned to a weekly RSI zone that the analyst describes as an “oversold zone” in the context of the long-term cycle. According to a post on X, a similar signal has only appeared four times within DOGE’s 12 years of operation, including the 2015, 2020, 2022, and current phases.
TradingView data also shows that DOGE’s weekly RSI is hovering around the historically weak zone that previously appeared near past cycle bottoms. This is prompting the market to pay closer attention to the possibility of DOGE entering a long-term accumulation phase, rather than simply viewing it as a typical short-term weakening move.
Past Bottoms Show Similar Patterns
Past periods of weakened momentum on DOGE’s weekly chart often appeared near long-term accumulation zones before the market regained upward momentum.
In 2015, DOGE almost lost liquidity and attention after a sharp decline in the wake of its first bull market. However, the weakened RSI zone at that time later coincided with the phase where DOGE began to form an accumulation base for the next bull cycle.
A similar pattern appeared in 2020 during the Covid crash, when DOGE dropped sharply along with the entire crypto market before entering an explosive growth phase in 2021. By 2022, DOGE’s weekly RSI once again returned to the low zone as the market entered the post-bear market phase.
The common point of these phases is that the cycle bottom usually did not form immediately. DOGE often experienced months of sideways trading and accumulation before speculative cash flow returned to the meme coin market.
Market Conditions Remain Fragile
According to CoinMarketCap data, DOGE currently has a market cap of around $17B, but spot volume remains significantly lower than futures activity, indicating that spot buying pressure is not yet clear enough to confirm a strong accumulation phase.
Derivatives data also reflects a cautious sentiment. DOGE’s Open Interest (OI) remains maintained around the $1.4B–$1.5B zone, showing that traders have not completely abandoned the market. However, the majority of activity currently still comes from futures positioning, making recoveries highly susceptible to liquidations or rapid changes in leverage.
DOGE derivatives metrics. Source: Coinglass
During recent recoveries, DOGE has still often faced strong selling pressure every time it attempts to reclaim key resistance areas on the chart.
Additionally, the current meme coin landscape is significantly different from previous cycles. Speculative cash flow is highly fragmented across many new asset groups, leaving DOGE without its near-monopoly position in the meme coin segment as seen in the 2021 phase.
Traders Watch Whether DOGE Can Stabilize
At the current moment, what traders are watching is not just that DOGE has returned to a historical RSI zone, but whether the price can stabilize after a prolonged period of decline.
The support zone around $0.10 currently continues to play an important role in DOGE’s long-term structure. If this meme coin holds the current area and begins to form a stable accumulation base on the weekly chart, the market could gradually shift toward expectations of a more sustainable recovery phase rather than continuing to drop deeper.
Conversely, if DOGE loses the current support zone amid continuing weakening liquidity, the historical RSI signal will likely not be enough to prevent selling pressure from expanding further in the short term.
Not a Confirmed Bottom Yet
The current RSI signal is not enough to confirm that DOGE has formed a cycle bottom. However, the fact that long-term momentum is returning to a zone that previously appeared near major past bottoms is causing DOGE to be monitored more closely at the current stage.
In previous cycles, the transition from a state of “fear and disbelief” to recovery usually took place more slowly than market expectations. Therefore, the current area will be important not because it guarantees an immediate reversal, but because it could show whether DOGE is starting to rebuild a long-term accumulation base.
