MLB is changing its tune toward prediction markets and data-sharing deals for integrity monitoring would be central to any possible partnership with Kalshi or Polymarket.
Major League Baseball is exploring partnerships with prediction market platforms. Speaking at owners’ meetings in Palm Beach, Florida, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred confirmed that league executives were briefed on potential partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which operate under federally regulated frameworks for event contracts.
The discussion comes at a sensitive moment for the league. Two Cleveland Guardians pitchers, Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, are facing federal charges related to an alleged pitch-rigging scheme tied to irregular betting activity. The case has intensified scrutiny of how leagues monitor wagering markets connected to their games.
A changing tune
Rather than placing prediction markets as competition to traditional sportsbooks, MLB appears to be evaluating them as part of its integrity infrastructure.
“We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting — why we might want to consider being in business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need,” Manfred said.
The key distinction, he noted, lies in regulatory oversight. While sports betting is regulated state by state, prediction markets fall under federal oversight through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
That difference may matter operationally. Federally regulated exchanges like Kalshi provide centralized data access and standardized compliance frameworks, potentially allowing leagues to monitor irregular patterns more systematically.
In August, MLB sent a memo to players and clubs warning them about prediction markets and reminding them the league’s gambling rules apply, @FOS first reported.
Today, Manfred said: “We might want to consider being in business with prediction markets” https://t.co/lm1bJGm2Ge
— Daniel Roberts (@readDanwrite) February 13, 2026
Integrity data is the strategic asset
MLB already maintains data-sharing partnerships with sports betting operators, and that access helped identify irregular betting patterns that contributed to the Clase investigation. A partnership with prediction markets could extend that visibility into another growing segment of sports event-based wagering.
“There’s obviously an opportunity to work with the markets themselves to get the kind of integrity protections you want,” Manfred said.
From a market structure perspective, this indicates a new phase for prediction platforms.
The NHL and UFC have already entered partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, making MLB’s exploration less experimental and more incremental within professional sports.
The UFC has chosen to partner with Polymarket as its Exclusive and Official Prediction Market.
The UFC will be integrating a Polymarket Scoreboard into the fights that will show the realtime % likelihood of who will win.
When I watch UFC, I love… pic.twitter.com/Jj8bOi5k3A
— Shayne Coplan 🦅 (@shayne_coplan) November 13, 2025
A regulatory gray zone
The integrity argument, however, exists alongside regulatory tension.
Earlier this month, New York Attorney General Letitia James issued a consumer alert calling prediction markets “unregulated gambling” and warning that sports-related contracts could violate state laws and pose financial risk to users. More than a dozen states have issued cease-and-desists and/or are engaged in ongoing court cases against prediction market exchanges for offering what they allege to be unlawful sports betting.
The situation shows the current fragmentation in US oversight. While the CFTC provides a federal framework, states retain gambling enforcement authority. A league-level partnership with prediction markets would therefore carry political and regulatory implications beyond commercial strategy.
The bigger shift: Financialization of sports outcomes
MLB’s consideration of prediction market partnerships reflects a deeper transformation. Sports outcomes are increasingly being financialized through federally regulated event contracts.
Prediction markets differ structurally from traditional sportsbooks in that prices are set by traders rather than a house. In theory, market-based pricing can offer leagues real-time probabilistic signals on specific in-game events, potentially surfacing anomalies faster than sportsbook odds alone.
The Clase case explains the stakes. Court filings allege that bettors placed targeted wagers tied to specific pitch outcomes across dozens of games dating back to 2023. Manfred acknowledged that detecting such patterns can be time consuming: “Sometimes it takes time for those patterns to become clear.”
A new integrity model
For leagues, the question is whether engaging with prediction markets proactively provides better transparency than remaining at arm’s length.
If MLB proceeds with a partnership, it would represent another milestone in prediction markets’ transition from financial experiments to regulated institutional infrastructure.
For prediction markets, MLB’s interest is more about legitimacy. For MLB, it is about whether broader market visibility can reduce the integrity blind spots that have defined recent scandals.
