Kalshi and Polymarket have more than $17 million in combined SOTU volume across mentions, attendance, speech duration, handshakes, and more. Here’s everything you can trade tonight.
More than $17 million has been wagered on what President Trump will say, who will show up, and how long he’ll talk during tonight’s State of the Union address. That’s a fraction of the Super Bowl’s billion-dollar weekend, but it’s the largest political speech event prediction markets have ever priced.
It also has some of the most unusual markets. Yes, people are wagering real money on whether Trump will take a sip of water during the speech (19% say yes), whether anyone will be kicked out of the chamber (43%), and even bingo.
Kalshi has the deeper market selection with more than $13 million in volume across four primary categories: what Trump will say, who he’ll mention by name, attendance, and speech duration. Polymarket has more than $4 million across 22 markets, including categories Kalshi doesn’t offer.
Trump speaks at 9 p.m. ET before a joint session of Congress. It’s his first formal State of the Union of his second term and comes during a politically charged stretch: a Supreme Court ruling against aspects of his tariff policy, approval ratings near their second-term lows, and a string of Democratic wins since his last address to Congress.
New users can still claim the $10 Kalshi promo using the sign-up code DEFI.
2026 State of the Union odds board
Leading outcome per market · Feb. 24, 2026
| Market | Leading outcome | Prob | Venues | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mention markets | ||||
| What will Trump say? | “Trillion” | 93% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $7.48M |
| Who will Trump mention? | Putin | 55% | Kalshi | $1.37M |
| Who will Trump name? | Biden | 95% | Polymarket | $523K |
| What places will Trump mention? | Iran | 96% | Polymarket | $507K |
| What will Trump say first? | “America / American” | 88% | Polymarket | $65K |
| Attendance | ||||
| Who will attend? | Erika Kirk | 99% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $5.66M |
| Trending attendance | Rep. Al Green (D-TX) | 64% | Kalshi | — |
| Trending attendance | Barron Trump | 70% | Kalshi, Polymarket | — |
| Will all Trump children attend? | Yes (71% K / 50% P) | 50–71% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $92K |
| Speech & ceremony | ||||
| Speech duration | Over 100 minutes | 78% | Kalshi, Polymarket | $1.05M |
| Over 80 minutes? | — | 96% | Polymarket | — |
| Trump-Vance handshake | Under 2 seconds | 80% | Polymarket | $24K |
| Will the SOTU be delayed? | No | 99% | Polymarket | $62K |
| Novelty & entertainment | ||||
| JD Vance clapping count | 100+ | 66% | Polymarket | $176K |
| Who will applaud? | Hakeem Jeffries | 81% | Polymarket | $73K |
| Trump nicknames used | “Green New Scam” | 53% | Polymarket | $49K |
| Trump tie color | Other | 68% | Polymarket | $56K |
| # of viewers | Under 35 million | 65% | Polymarket | $34K |
| SOTU bingo cards (3 cards) | — | — | Polymarket | $34K |
| Anyone kicked out? | Yes | 43% | Polymarket | $15K |
| Will Trump drink water? | No | 81% | Polymarket | $13K |
| What time will speech begin? | 9–9:15 PM ET | 66% | Polymarket | $11K |
| Longest applause duration | — | — | Polymarket | $2K |
Source: DeFi Rate · Aggregated from Kalshi & Polymarket · Use Kalshi Code DEFI → $10 free
Mention markets are the main event
If the Super Bowl proved anything, it’s that mention markets drive outsized engagement relative to their headline significance. The same pattern is repeating here.
Kalshi has 45 key words and phrases available for the SOTU address, with more than half sitting above 50% implied probability. Over $6.5 million has traded on the Kalshi “What will Trump say?” market alone. The near-locks include “trillion” at 93%, “Trump” at 90%, “hockey” at 89%, “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 88%, “fraud” at 88%, and “Olympics / World Cup” at 88%.
A separate Kalshi market — “Who will Trump mention?” — has drawn $1.4 million in volume across individual names. Putin leads at 55%, followed by Bessent at 53% and Witkoff at 51%. Bibi / Netanyahu is at 26%, Elon / Musk at 23%, and Epstein at 10%.
The Olympics and World Cup market surged after Trump invited the US men’s hockey team, which won gold at the Winter Olympics, to attend the speech. The women’s team declined the invitation, which could prompt Trump to address the snub directly. “ICE / National Guard” sits at 86%, with the immigration enforcement narrative dominating the current news cycle. “Radical left” sits at 70%, which looks low given the Supreme Court tariff ruling and Trump’s tendency to frame judicial opposition in partisan terms.
On Polymarket, mention markets have drawn $2 million across three categories: what Trump will say ($1 million), who he’ll name ($523,000 with Biden leading at 95%), and what places he’ll mention ($507,000 with Iran leading at 96%). The near-certainty bet on the “say” market is that Trump will say “America” or “American” more than 25 times, priced at 96%. “MAGA” or “Make America Great Again” is at 87%, while “hottest” — likely referencing Trump’s economic framing — sits at 85%.
“Epstein” is priced at just 10% on Kalshi and 14% on Polymarket, implying a roughly 7–10x return if it hits.
Attendance has drawn $5.7 million in combined volume
The guest list for a Trump State of the Union is a prediction market in itself. Kalshi has $4.85 million in attendance volume across 46 individual markets, while Polymarket has attracted $805,000 with $214,000 traded today alone.
Erika Kirk tops the Polymarket list at 99%. On Kalshi, Ilhan Omar, John Fetterman, Pete Hegseth, and Scott Bessent are at 98%, with Susan Collins and Jack Hughes (the hockey team captain invited by Trump) at 97%. On the other end, confirmed boycotters like Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) are priced below 1%.
The tradeable range is where it gets interesting. Barron Trump has surged to 70% on Kalshi, up 16 points in a day. Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who was ejected from the chamber during Trump’s joint session last March for heckling, has climbed to 64% — the market is leaning toward a return appearance. George Santos, the expelled congressman turned Trump ally, has jumped to 58%. Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader, has dropped to 31% on Kalshi after earlier trading near 50%.
A separate market prices the probability that all five of Trump’s children — Ivanka, Don Jr., Eric, Tiffany, and Barron — will attend at 71% on Kalshi and 50% on Polymarket, with $92,000 in combined volume. That’s a sharp move from earlier in the week when it traded as low as 35%. Ivanka has surged to 95% and Tiffany to 94%, while Jared Kushner sits at 91% despite both having returned to the private sector after Trump’s first term.
Several Democrats are planning counter-programming. Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) and Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX) will hold a rally on the National Mall called the “People’s State of the Union” during the address.
Expect Trump to go long
Both platforms now agree the speech will likely run past 100 minutes. Polymarket gives it 78% odds with $477,000 in volume — one of its most active SOTU markets. A second Polymarket market (“Will the SOTU be __ minutes?”) has $190,000 in volume and prices 80+ minutes at 96%. On Kalshi, the speech duration market has drawn $387,000 across nine contracts, with a 99% probability Trump speaks for at least 60 minutes and 53% he breaks 100.
The implied median has shifted sharply toward 100+ minutes as the speech approaches. For context, Trump averaged 80 minutes and 20 seconds across his first three State of the Union addresses, but his joint session on March 4, 2025, ran 99 minutes and 32 seconds.
Polymarket novelty markets
Polymarket is running several categories that Kalshi hasn’t matched, and some are drawing serious volume.
The JD Vance clapping counter is the biggest Polymarket novelty market at $176,000 in volume with $94,800 traded today. “100+” has surged to 66%, up from 22% earlier in the day. Vance, as Vice President, is seated behind Trump and is expected to stand and applaud dozens of times during the address. A separate “who will applaud” market ($72,500 in volume) has Hakeem Jeffries leading at 81%.
The Trump-Vance handshake market has $23,800 in volume. “Under 2 seconds” has surged to 80%, up from 49% this morning. The “no handshake” option had traded as high as 25% last week before falling below 10%, reflecting reports that the relationship between Trump and Vance is more stable than some had speculated.
Polymarket’s nickname market ($49,100 in volume) is pricing “Green New Scam” as the most likely Trump nickname at 53%, with “Sleepy Joe” at 32%.
Trump’s tie color has drawn $56,400 in volume, with “other” leading at 68% — meaning the market expects something other than a standard red or blue tie. Viewership expectations are bearish: the “under 35 million” outcome leads at 65% with $33,500 in volume.
The “will anyone be kicked out?” market sits at 43% with $14,800 in volume, reflecting the precedent set by Rep. Al Green’s ejection last year. Trump drinking water during the speech is priced at just 19%.
Three SOTU bingo cards ($34,000 in combined volume) aggregate outcomes across mention, attendance, and nickname markets into single parlay-style contracts.
How to watch
President Trump delivers the State of the Union at 9 p.m. ET on all major broadcast and cable news networks. The speech will be livestreamed on the White House YouTube channel, NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, C-SPAN, and PBS.
